长江中游水文系统模型变异诊断研究

Identification of Hydrologic Model Change-Point for Middle Yantgze River

摘要: 水文模型结构变异分析可为水文模拟提供科学依据。针对多输入单输出线性系统模型，基于线性模型的贝叶斯变点估计方法，诊断和识别水文系统中的模型结构变异。以长江中游水文系统为研究背景，分别建立了宜昌–沙市、宜昌–螺山两个多输入单输出线性系统模型，结果表明，长江中游水文模型变异不显著，模拟中可作为一致性序列处理。

Abstract:  It is very important to identify the model change-point for scientific understand of the hydrologic simulation. Based on the Bayesian change-point estimation of the general linear model, a method has been set up to identify the change-point of hydrologic systematic model, especially a multiple inputs—single output linear model. With the cases study of the middle Yangze River, two models have been set up to simulate the flows from Yichang to Shashi and Luoshan stations, respectively, it is indicated that no significant change has taken place in the studied area.