河南省工业能源消费及大气污染物排放预测研究

Forecasts of Industrial Energy Consumption and Air Pollutant Emissions in Henan Province

摘要: 本文首先对“十二五”期间河南省的工业能源消费情况进行分析，进而估算其SO2，NOx，PM10，PM2.5等大气污染物的直接排放量，并在此基础上，采用LEAP模型和情景分析法对“十二五”期间河南省工业能源消费量与大气污染物的排放量进行了预测，使用LMDI分解方法对预测结果进行分析。研究表明，“十二五”期间河南省的能源消费量仍保持增长，而大气污染物排放量均有所下降；影响排放变化的主要因素是活动水平的增长，能源强度和排放因子的下降。

Abstract: In this paper, industrial energy consumption of Henan in 12th Five Years Plan was analyzed firstly and then the direct emissions of air pollutions caused by industrial energy consumption which included SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 were calculated. And on this basis, the industrial energy consumption and air pollution emis- sions of Henan in 12th Five Years Plan were forecasted by LEAP model and scenario analysis method, at last, the results were analyzed by using LMDI method. The study shows that Henan’s energy consumption keeps growing and air pollutant emission decreases during 12th Five Years Plan, main driving factors resulting in emis- sions’ change are the increase of the activity level and the decrease of the energy intensity and emission factors.