城市污水再生利用系统分析及模拟预测

System Analysis, Simulation and Prediction on Urban Wastewater Reclamation and Reuse

摘要: 本文利用系统分析法全面地分析了城市污水再生利用系统的组成、结构和影响因素，在此基础上建立了城市污水再生利用系统SD模型，通过不同回用方案对未来十年我国城市污水再生利用前景进行了方案的模拟与预测。结果表明：在污水二级处理年增长率为3.5%，污水回用增长率为2%的情况下，2022年污水二级处理率将达到91.2%，污水回用率为25.4%，COD减排削减到2445.8亿t，均达到了国家规划目标要求，但是回用工程每年的投资至少占GDP的0.04%以上。

Abstract: In order to coordinate into conventional water resources system, the wastewater reuse system should be technologically designed to maximize the profit of operation. The composition, structure and influencing factors of urban wastewater reclamation and reuse system were systematically analyzed in this study. A system dynamic (SD) model for urban wastewater reclamation and reuse planning was established to simulate the dynamic development of solutions and their influence on economic for the next decade. The annual growth rates of secondary treatment and wastewater reuse were set as 3.5% and 2%, respectively. The secondary treatment rate, wastewater reuse rate, and COD reduction would be up to 91.2%, 25.4%, and 244.58 billion tons in 2022, respectively. With the investment of wastewater reuse larger than 0.04% of annual GDP, all of result could meet the national plans.