摘要: 流域径流量是兼具随机性和规律性的重要气象水文要素之一。为了阐明西江流域径流分布的不确定性，本文将云模型引入到径流季节分布特性、年际分布特性和空间分布特性研究中，并对西江流域1956~2000年间21个水文站的逐月径流资料进行了分析研究。研究结果表明：西江流域的径流量在夏季最充沛，在冬季最少；径流量在冬季最为稳定，春季次之；与不同季节径流分布特性相比，流域径流量的年际分布的不均匀性较大；与径流量在时间尺度上的分布特性相比，流域径流量在空间上的分布具有较大的不均匀性和不稳定性。通过期望、熵、超熵三个数字特征对径流时空分布的不确定性进行量化，可全面直观地研究径流量的分布特性。
Abstract:
Runoff is one of the most important hydrological and meteorological factors with randomness and regularity. In order to illustrate the uncertainty of runoff in the West River Basin, based on the monthly ob- servation data of 21 hydrological stations form 1956-2000, cloud model is used in characteristics analysis of seasonal runoff distribution, annual runoff distribution and spatial runoff distribution. Results showed: runoff is the most in summer, and the least in winter; in winter, runoff presents the best stability, then in spring; compared with the seasonal runoff distribution, annual runoff distribution is more uncertainty; compared with the temporal runoff distribution, spatial runoff distribution is more unstable and with more uncertainty. Un- certainty in temporal and spatial runoff distribution is quantified by the numerical characteristic index of cloud model, which makes the characteristics analysis more comprehensive and intuitive.