水文序列的方差变异诊断与识别

Diagnosis and Identification for Variance Variation of Hydrological Series

摘要: 由于受全球气候变化和频繁人类活动的影响，水文序列非一致性问题逐渐突出，并引发了众多的关注。研究水文序列的变异性主要集中在均值上，对方差等高阶矩的变异性分析研究较少。本文提出了采用Breusch-Pagan检验检测序列方差的非一致性，结合水文变异诊断系统对方差变异形式进行识别的方法，以研究水文序列方差变异诊断与识别问题。并以海河区的永定河册田水库以上水资源三级区作为研究区域，探讨该区域年径流量方差变异情况。结果表明，该区域年径流量方差在1967年发生了跳跃向下的中变异，与实际情况较为一致。

Abstract:  Under the influence of global climate changes and frequent human activities, the issue of inconsistency in hydrology stands out, and draws considerable attention. Study on hydrological sequence variability mainly focuses on the mean, and variation in the variance or high order moment catches less attention. A method for the issue of diagnosis and identification for variance variation of hydrological series is proposed in this paper: Breusch-Pagan test is used to check the inconsistency of the variance of the series, and Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System is designed to identify the variation form of variance. The third grade region on the upper reaches of Cetian Reservoir of Yongding River in the Haihe River is taken as the study area, and the variance variation of annual runoff series in this area is discussed. The result shows that the variance of annual runoff series in this area has a middle variation with a form of jump-down in 1967, which is consistent with the real situation.