基于VAR模型的河南省碳排放及其影响因素分析

Analysis on the Carbon Emission in Henan Province and Its Influence Factors Based on VAR Model

摘要: 基于河南省1980~2011年的统计数据，运用VAR模型构建了碳排放及其影响因素的实证模型，利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法深度分析了不同碳排放影响因素的作用规律和动态关系。结果表明：经济发展水平、能源结构、能源强度对碳排放影响显著；经济发展水平对碳排放的冲击为持久效应，能源结构对碳排放具有抑制效应，能源强度对碳排放的影响具有时滞性。本文据此从经济发展水平、能源结构和能源强度等方面提出了建议。

Abstract: Based on the statistical data 1980-2011 of Henan Province, making use of VAR model to establish the empirical model for carbon emission and its influence factors, the paper deeply analyzes func-tional principles and dynamic relationships of different carbon emissions influence factors by using methods such as impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that: level of economic development, energy structure and energy intensity have significant impacts on carbon emission, that is, the level of economic development has a lasting effect on carbon emission, energy structure has an inhibitory effect while energy intensity has a time-lag effect on carbon emission. According to the study above, the paper provides recommendations on level of economic development, energy structure and energy intensity.