摘要:
过去2000年的气候变化是全球变化研究关注的核心内容之一，是连接过去百年器测数据、鉴别人类活动对气候变化影响、探讨气候自然变化过程的关键。整体而言，我国学者在2000年以来高分辨率气候重建方面取得如下三个方面的进展，即历史文献资料气候信号的数字化、湖泊沉积地球化学温标的探讨和气候模拟，特别是对自然过程和人类影响下降水变化机理的模拟研究，使得我国在探讨过去降水重建与模拟研究方面出现了突破性的进展。在对过去2000年气候环境变化的研究中，湖泊沉积物分布范围广泛、记录连续、信息丰富等自身的优势使其在研究过去气候变化上具有不可替代的地位。本文在择要综述对过去2000气候环境研究进展的基础上，对我国湖泊沉积古气候重建研究进展及存在问题、可能突破途径进行综述。整体而言，我国湖泊沉积记录的近2ka以来的气候变化研究数量有限，能够确切代表过去气候、特别是温度和/或降水历史的成果并不多，在两千年以来湖泊沉积记录的高分辨率、高精度定年，气候因子与湖泊沉积记录指标之间定量转换函数的建立以及古气候、古环境重建中有效指标的选择上还存在一些难度。在今后的湖泊沉积研究上需要做到几个方面：1) 注重湖泊沉积的高精度定年；2) 加强多环境指标的综合研究与气候因子与环境指标之间的定量转换函数研究；3) 加强高分辨率环境演化的时空对比研究；4) 加强多学科交叉研究、特别是新技术、新方法、新概念和新指标的引入和探索。
Abstract: The climate changes during last 2000 yrs are one of the main topics drawing the attentions of scientists all around the world, as it connects to the climatic data obtained by the scientific equipment, contains the information produced by the human activities, and is also the key point to explore natural processes of the climatic changes. Generally speaking, three aspects of the progress have been made by the Chinese scientists during last years, which include firstly the calculation of the temperature and precipitations using historical data and documents, and then is the climatic proxies drawn by geochemical, especially the organic geochemical data. And lastly, the climate simulations, especially in the aspect of the precipitation changes under the scenario forced by both natural factors and human impacts. Among the studies on the climate changes during last 2000 years, lacustrine sediments have the priority of irreplaceability since they are widely distributed, their accumulation processes are continuously, and they also contain rich information related with the climate-environmental changes. Anyhow, there are not many studies on the lacustrine sediments and there are few proxies obtained from lake deposits that definitely represent either temperature or precipitation. There are many problems to be faced and overcome on obtaining the sediments with high resolution, establishment of the highly accuracy and reliability chronologies, defining the independent climatic proxies. We believe we must put our efforts on the following four aspects: firstly, we must concentrate on the accurate datings; secondly, we have to focus on the comprehensive studies of the climatic proxies and independent temperature and/or precipitation proxies; thirdly, we must enforce regional correlations of the high resolution records; and last but not least, we must make great effort on the exploration of new technology and methods, new concepts and new proxies.