乌江流域洪家渡水电站面雨量阈值指标分析

The Analysis of Rainfall Threshold of Hongjiadu Hydropower Station Area in the Wujiang River Basin

摘要: 本文利用2008~2012年乌江流域洪家渡水电站逐日入库流量、库水位和面雨量资料进行了相关分析和多元回归计算，针对电站500 m³/s和1000 m³/s两个关键入库流量，研究给出了该电站流域面雨量阈值指标。结果表明：洪家渡水电站库容水位涨落与入库流量密切相关，入库流量大于500 m³/s时，水位上涨明显；电站入库流量与前日流量相关性最好，相关系数R²达0.778，入库流量与前十日累积面雨量、前日面雨量相关系数R²分别为0.697和0.333；面雨量阈值表明，前日入库流量相对较小时，需要较大的面雨量才有可能形成500 m³/s或1000 m³/s的流量，而前日入库流量相对较大时，仅需要相对较小的面雨量就有可能形成500 m³/s或1000 m³/s的流量。

Abstract: In this paper, the Hongjiadu Hydropower Station’s daily inflow, reservoir water level and area rainfall data are used to do the correlation analysis and multiple regression calculation, aiming at the two key inflows of 500 m³/s and 1000 m³/s of the power station. The study gives the rainfall threshold of the power station area. Results show that the reservoir water level of Hongjiadu Hy-dropower Station is closely related to reservoir inflow. When the inflow is more than 500 m³/s, water level rises significantly. Power station reservoir inflow best correlates with yesterday’s flow; the correlation coefficient R² reaches 0.778. The correlation coefficient of reservoir inflow with cumulative area rainfall before ten days, and with yesterday’s area rainfall is 0.697 and 0.333 re-spectively. Area rainfall threshold shows that: when yesterday’s flow is relatively little, more area rainfall is needed to form the flow of 500 m³/s or 1000 m³/s; when yesterday’s flow is relatively much, little area rainfall is needed to form the flow of 500 m³/s or 1000 m³/s.