黄水沟洪水变化趋势分析

Trend Analysis on Flooding Changes in Huangshuigou River

摘要: 依据黄水沟水文站实测资料建立年最大洪峰流量序列，对黄水沟洪水时空变化特性进行简要分析，采用统计分析法和Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了黄水沟58年来洪水特征变化趋势。结果表明：黄水沟年最大洪峰流量主要出现在主汛期，且年际变化较大；进入20世纪90年代，年最大洪峰流量偏离平均值幅度较大，从1994 年开始进入大洪水多发期，且大洪水出现频次增加；黄水沟洪水在上世纪80年代末期出现了由少到多的突变，其中1999年以后上升趋势比较显著。

Abstract: Based on recorded flow data series of the Huangshuigou hydrological station, the annual maximum peak flood discharge series was constructed. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of flood series were briefly analyzed, and the change trend was calculated by using statistical methods and Mann- Kendall test. The results show that the annual maximum peak discharge occurred mainly in the main flood season with large inter-annual variation. Annual maximum peak flow deviated from the average value greatly starting in 1994, and was flood prone period with large floods and increasing frequency during 1990s; In the late 1980s, the flood of Huangshuigou appeared mutation from less to more, and after 2000, the rising trend is significant.