碳税对房价的影响—基于省际面板数据的研究

Impact of Carbon Tax upon Housing Prices—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

摘要: 二氧化碳大量排放导致的温室效应问题推动着我国碳税政策的出台。碳税的开征会对房价造成怎样的影响？多大程度的影响？本文从消费者效用最大化和房地产商利润最大化的角度建模，将碳税引入其中，研究了碳税政策对房价的影响，并结合中国省际面板数据对这一影响程度进行了实证测算。研究发现碳税的征收将导致均衡房价的上涨以及均衡房屋交易量的下降，在其他因素不变的情况下，碳税的征收会导致平均房价预期增加0.0418%。结果表明，碳税政策在一定程度上能促进房地产行业节能减排，且不会给房价造成很大影响。

Abstract: The greenhouse effect, caused by large numbers of carbon dioxide emissions, drives the introduc-tion of a carbon tax. What and how much will be the impact of carbon tax upon housing prices? To answer these questions, we build models involving the utility maximization of consumers and the profit maximization of land agents, where the carbon tax is taken into account. Furthermore, we try to measure that impact with provincial panel data. The results show that a carbon tax will cause a decrease in the balanced volume of housing transaction and increase the equilibrium housing prices by 0.0418%, holding other factors fixed. To conclude, the carbon tax policy can promote the energy conservation in the real estate industry, and does not have a significant impact on house prices.