基于统计分析的2014~2015赛季CBA球队常规赛成绩影响因素的研究

Research on the Influence Factors of CBA Team Performance in 2014-2015 Regular Season Based on Statistical Analysis

摘要: 近二十年来，CBA联赛(中国男子篮球职业联赛)在品牌价值、市场开发、传播影响力、管理体制、球队建设和青少年培养等方面取得了令人瞩目的发展，极有可能发展成为紧随NBA联赛(全美职业篮球联赛)之后的全球第二大职业篮球联赛。同时，以NBA联赛为参照，CBA联赛在数据统计方面逐步完善，这为篮球专业人士和广大球迷提供了深入研究CBA联赛的机会。本文综合运用一系列统计研究方法对2014~2015赛季CBA球队常规赛成绩的影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明，CBA球队的整体攻防能力是决定球队常规赛成绩的最核心因素；CBA常规赛存在明显的主场优势，球队在主客场比赛的成绩差异显著地体现在球队的各个方面；CBA联赛各球队在竞技篮球技术层面还存在明显的不足。

Abstract: In recent twenty years, the CBA league (China Men’s Professional Basketball League) has achieved remarkable development in the fields of brand value, market exploration, communication influence, management system, team building, youth training and so forth. It is likely that the CBA league will be the world’s second largest professional basketball league, immediately following the steps of the NBA league (National American Professional Basketball League). According to the NBA league, the system of data statistics of the CBA league has been improved gradually, and professionals and amateurs have been endowed a chance for further study of the CBA league. In this paper, empirical research has been made by a series of statistical methods for studying the influence factors of CBA teams’ performance in 2014-2015 regular season. The results show that, the overall offensive and defensive capabilities of CBA teams are the core elements of the team performance in regular season; CBA teams have been endowed obvious home advantages and the team performance difference between home and guest games has been significantly reflected in some aspects; some obvious deficiencies of basketball technology still exist in CBA teams.