摘要:
根据长江流域134个气象站1961-2010年逐日气象资料，基于Penman-Monteith法计算参照蒸发量，选取NECP再分析数据，采用SDSM (the Statistical Down-Scaling Model)方法，进行长江流域未来参照蒸发量的降尺度研究。研究表明：1) SDSM方法对参照蒸发量能较准确的模拟，检验期的确定性系数可达93%以上；2) 1961~2010年长江流域的蒸发蒸腾量呈下降趋势，显著下降的站点集中在长江中下游区域、长江流域北部的区域；3) Rcp45与Rcp85气候情景下，长江流域未来2011~2099年的参照蒸发量呈上升趋势，且Rcp85情景下的参照蒸发量增加的幅度大于Rcp45。
Abstract:
Based on 134 hydro-meteorological gauges in the Yangtze River basin 1961-2010 daily meteorological data, the reference evaporation was calculated by using the Penman-Monteith method. To predict the future change of the reference evaporation, SDSM (the Statistical Down-Scaling Model) method was used to downscale the outputs of GCMs, which was firstly trained by utilizing the NECP reanalysis data. Results show that: 1) SDSM reference evaporation method performed better in simulating the reference evapo-ration as to the high simulation deterministic coefficient (0.93) in the testing period; 2) 1961-2010 annual reference evaporation in the Yangtze River basin decreased significantly; decreasing sites concentrated in the lower reaches, the middle stream and the north of the Yangtze River basin; 3) under Rcp45 and Rcp85 climate scenarios, reference evaporation of the Yangtze River basin will increase in 2011 - 2099 years, and the rate of increase of reference evaporation under Rcp85 scenarios is greater than Rcp45.