基于截断回归模型的网络拍卖成交价格影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Price Determinants in Online Auction Based on Truncated Regression Models

摘要: 随着互联网金融的不断发展，网络拍卖已经成为一种新型的网络购物方式和拍卖方式，与其有关的研究已经成为大数据分析的一个有趣的研究课题。拍卖的成交与否以及成交价格是人们关注的重要指标，而研究拍卖成交价格的影响因素对卖家和买家来讲都有着极其重要的意义。本文选取孔夫子旧书网上特定的拍卖数据，筛选出对拍卖成交价格影响最大的8个因素，并分析了其潜在的原因。基于此建立了截断回归模型，较为成功地预测出了2015年3月同类拍品的拍卖价格，并对卖家提供了较为有效的信息帮助。

Abstract: With the development of Internet financial, online auction has become a new way of online shop-ping and auction. Clinching a deal or not and the final auction price are important indices. The in-fluencing factors of auction price have significant influence to both sellers and buyers. In this article, we collected data from specific books on http://www.kongfz.com/, and screened finally eight factors which have significant influence on the transaction price. Based on truncated regression model, we predict the transaction price in March 2015, which is a success and will be helpful to both sellers and buyers.