碳排放与其影响因素之间关系的变化—基于STIRPAT模型的分位数回归分析

The Change of the Relationship between CO₂ Emissions and the Driving Forces—Quantile Regression Based on STIRPAT Model

摘要: 前人很多有关人口、财富、科技和碳排放的关系的研究，都假定人口和财富的生态弹性系数是时间不变和空间不变的。本文基于STIRPAT模型，利用稳健的分位数回归分析了，我们讨论了碳排放与人口、财富和科技的关系在1992~2009年期间的变化情况。主要结果如下：1) 对于财富的生态弹性系数比人口的生态弹性系数大的国家，人口、财富、科技和碳排放的STIRPAT关系变化很小。2) 对于碳排放量相对高的国家，人口是碳排放的主要因素，科技对碳排放总量的影响也大，而碳排放量越高，财富对碳排放的影响越小。3) 对于碳排放量很高的国家，财富的生态弹性系数介于0.65~1.1之间。对于碳排放量较低或很低的国家，财富的生态弹性系数稳定在1.2附近。4) 9个不同分位数回归的科技截距的变化幅度由1992年的8.5缩小到2009的2.8。

Abstract: In most previous studies of the relationship between CO₂ emissions, population, affluence and technology, the ecological elasticities of population and affluence were assumed to be both time invariant and space invariant. Based on the STIRPAT model, by using robust quantile regression, we studied the change of the relationship between CO₂ emissions, population, affluence and technology at different CO₂ emissions levels during the period 1992-2009. Our main results are as follows: 1) the relationship between CO₂ emissions, population, affluence and technology changes slightly in countries where the ecological elasticity of affluence is greater than that of the population. 2) In those countries with relatively high levels of CO₂ emissions, higher emissions mean that increases in population and affluence have smaller effects on the impacts of emissions, but technology has a greater effect on those impacts. 3) In those countries with high CO₂ emissions, the ecological elasticity of affluence increases from less than 0.65 to 1.1, but in countries with moderate or low CO₂ emissions, the ecological elasticity of affluence is stable at approximately 1.2. 4) The shifting scope of the technology intercepts of nine different quantile regression analyses decreases from 8.5 in 1992 to 2.8 in 2009.