小麦最低收购价的定价模型分析

Analysis on Pricing Model of Wheat’s Minimum Purchase Price

摘要: 民以食为天，粮食作为人类生存与发展的必需品，具有不可替代的特性。目前我国人多、地少、水缺等问题日益凸显，使得粮食产业面临着潜在的风险。在市场经济条件下，政府对粮食价格的宏观调控显得尤为重要。我国自2005年起对粮食主产区实行最低收购价政策，该政策有效保护了粮农利益、调动了粮农生产积极性、保证了粮食安全。本文通过VAR模型构建小麦最低收购价的定价模型，结合实际数据给出“十二五”期间小麦最低收购价的预测值，结果略高于国家发改委公布的小麦最低收购价格，而与市场收购价更接近，运用定价模型预测出的2017年小麦最低收购价的合理范围为每50公斤125.07元至136.01元。2018年小麦最低收购价的合理范围的预测结果为每50公斤126.38元至139.77元。

Abstract: Hunger breeds discontentment; as a necessity for human survival and development, foodstuff has irreplaceable characteristics. At present, more and more people, less land, water shortages and other issues are increasingly prominent, so the food industry is facing potential risks. Under the conditions of market economy, the government’s macro-control of grain prices is particularly important. Since 2005, China has implemented the minimum purchase price policy for major grain producing areas, which effectively protects the interests of farmers, mobilizes the enthusiasm of farmers and ensures food security. This paper constructs the pricing model of the minimum purchase price of wheat by VAR model, combines with the actual data and gives the predicted value of wheat minimum purchase price during 12th Five-Year; the results are slightly higher than the lowest purchase price of wheat announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, but closer to the market price. Pricing model is used to predict the minimum purchase price of wheat. In 2017, the price ranges from 125.07 to 136.01 yuan per 50 kg, while in 2018, the predicted price ranges from 126.38 to 139.77 yuan per 50 kg.