青岛市地铁效应的数学建模研究

A Research on Subway Effect in Qingdao Based on Mathematical Modeling

摘要: 本文将层次分析法与模糊综合评价方法相结合，选取了七个评价指标，将评价结果划分为“大、较大、一般、较小、小”五个等级，建立了青岛市“地铁效应”的综合评价模型。利用该模型分别对李沧区、市北区、市南区2016年的“地铁效应”做出了评价，得出李沧区“地铁效应较小”，市北区“地铁效应一般”，市南区“地铁效应大”的结论。将灰色预测模型和最小二乘拟合相结合，对各指标在2017年的取值进行预测，进而对三个区市2017年“地铁效应”进行预测，得出三个区市2017年“地铁效应大”的预测结果。

Abstract: This paper builds the comprehensive evaluation model through combining analytic hierarchy process with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate subway effect in Qingdao. Seven evaluation indexes are chosen and the evaluation results are divided into five parts. And in this model, the subway effects of Licang District, Shibei District and Shinan District in 2016 were evaluated. By using this model, we have the conclusion that the subway has a small effect on Licang District and a general effect on Shibei District. However, it has a great effect on Shinan District. Grey prediction and the least square fit method are applied to predict the value of the seven indexes in 2017. And the evaluation results of subway effect in 2017 are given based on this prediction method.