基于干预模型的中国粮食产量预测分析

Analysis of Grain Yield Forecast Based on Intervention Model

摘要: 粮食生产的不稳定性对国民经济的影响是不可忽略的。从建国以来，我国的粮食产量出现过几次较大的波动，因此在对粮食产量进行预测时往往需要将这些产生波动的因素考虑进去。本文选取从1978年至2016年中国粮食产量的数据进行整理分析，总共有39个数据，在对数据分析时，发现在1998年至2003年，我国的粮食产量出现下降现象，在这个时间段，影响粮食下降的主要因素是由于我国许多地区盲目推行“退耕还林，退耕还草”，导致粮食下降严重。

Abstract: Grain output instability influence on national economy cannot be ignored. Since the founding of our country’s grain, large fluctuation of production appeared several times, so in the forecast of grain production, we often need to take into account the factors of fluctuations. This article se-lected analyses of China’s grain output data for a total of 39 data from 1978 to 2016. It found that from 1998 to 2003, China’s grain output declines. In that period, the main factors influencing the food drop are that many officials of our country blindly pursue “returning farmland to forest, farmland and grassland”, resulting in a decline in grain output which is serious.