播期对秋闲田饲用高粱单株生产力与产量的回归分析

Regression Analysis of Different Sowing Times on Plant Productivity and Biological Yield of Forage Sorghum in Autumn Idle Land

摘要: 【目的】为了探索播期与秋闲田饲用高粱单株生产力和生物产量的线性回归预测模型。【方法】采用田间试验与线性回归分析的方法，对播期与饲用高粱单株生产力和草产量的关系进行模拟和比较。【结果】播期对秋闲田饲用高粱单株生产力和生物产量具有重要影响，其单株生产力和生物产量随播期的推迟而降低。构建了播期与单株生产力和生物产量关系的回归模型，单株鲜重与播期的回归模型为ŷ_鲜 = 0.618 − 0.015x，单株干重与播期的回归模型为 ŷ_干 = 0.184 − 0.005x，单产与播期的回归模型为 ŷ_单 = 29126.461 − 711.448x。在7月23日至8月30日之间的播期每推迟1 d，饲用高粱的单株鲜重平均减少0.015 g，单株干重平均减少0.005 g，单产平均减少711.448 kg/hm²。【结论】本研究构建的3个回归模型，为秋闲田饲用高粱生产提供理论支撑。

Abstract: [Objective] The aim was to explore the linear regression prediction model of different sowing times and plant productivity, biological yields of forage sorghum in autumn idle land. [Method] To different sowing times and plant productivity, biological yields of forage sorghum for regression model analysis were simulated and compared by employing field plot experiment and linear re-gression analysis. [Results] The results showed that the forage sorghum sowing times on plant productivity and biological yields have important influence, and its plant productivity and biolog-ical yields were decreased with the delay of sowing times. To construct the regression model be-tween sowing times and plant productivity and biological yields, regression model of the single fresh weight and sowing times is ŷfresh = 0.618 − 0.015x; model of the single dry weight and sowing is ŷ_hay = 0.184 − 0.005x x; model of the per unit area yield and sowing is ŷ_per = 29126.461 − 711.448x. Between July 23rd and August 30th, the sowing times were delayed 1 d, and forage sorghum plant fresh weight was reduced by 0.015 g on average, and the average plant dry weight was reduced by 0.005 g, and the average grass yield was reduced by 711.448 kg/hm². [Conclusion] This study has constructed the three regression model, which will provide theoretical support for the production of Forage Sorghum in Autumn Idle Land.