浙江省粮食产量影响因素的多水平模型分析

Multilevel Model Analysis of Influencing Factors of Grain Yield in Zhejiang

摘要: 粮食安全一直是一个国家和地区经济安全的基础，尤其像浙江这样一个经济发达的省份，在耕地面积不断减少和自然灾害等诸多因素的综合影响下，出现了粮食产量不稳定且多年减产的现象，如何稳定和增加粮食产量已成为浙江省各级政府需要迫切解决的问题，因此研究浙江省粮食产量影响因素具有重要意义。本文采用浙江省62个区县年样本数据，建立了粮食产量及其影响因素的多水平模型。结果表明：粮食播种面积、有效灌溉面积、农用化肥施用量以及机耕面积对粮食产量有显著影响。因此，在今后的粮食生产中，浙江省要扩大种植面积、合理使用化肥和农药、增加农业有效灌溉面积，扩大机耕面积，这对提高粮食产量具有重要作用。

Abstract: Food security has been the basis of the economic security of a country or region, especially in Zhejiang, such a economically developed provinces, due to the comprehensive effect of declining arable land and natural disasters and other factors, grain yield is unstable and reduced for many years. How to stabilize and increase the grain yield of Zhejiang province has become an urgent problem for all levels of government in Zhejiang Province. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of grain yield in Zhejiang Province. This paper uses the sample data of 62 counties in Zhejiang Province, establishes a multi level model of grain yield and its influencing factors. The results showed that the grain sown area, the effective irrigation area, agricultural chemical fertilizer and plowing area has significant effect on the grain yield. Therefore, in the future grain production, Zhejiang province should expand the planting area, rationally use chemical fertilizers and pesticides, increase agricultural irrigation effective surface product, and expand the area cultivated, which plays an important role in improving grain yield.