基于投影寻踪方法的模糊综合估计与聚类的 工程项目风险评估

The Project Risk Estimate Model Based on the Projection Pursuit and Fuzzy Clustering

摘要: 本文基于投影寻踪的方法以模糊综合估计与聚类方法为核心，研究了工程项目风险量化评估问题。首先使用投影寻踪方法求出各个风险指标项的权重；接下来，检验各个指标项评分的偏离程度，对其中偏离度高的使用区间评分法；然后，检验各专家的评分，剔除其中偏离程度较大的专家评分项。最后通过IT项目实例计算该项目风险评分。

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to construct a model which mainly based on projection pursuit model and use fuzzy estimates and clustering to raise the precision of the risk evaluation. Firstly, use projection pursuit model to compute the weight of each one of the risk factors, then check the deviation of each factor’s score and use the interval point-rating method to reevaluate the score of these ones; secondly check the given scores of every expert and eliminate the deviated ones; finally, the risk of IT project is presented at the end for instance in steps, following that using projection pursuit model to verify the weight matrix to testify the feasibility of the model.