货币增长率、收入流通加速度与通货膨胀—基于中国数据的实证分析

Growth Rate of Money, Income Acceleration Velocity of Money and Inflation—Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

摘要: 本文以中国1978~2009 年的数据为样本，以Friedman 货币数量论方程式为基础，通过实证分析发现：第一，货币M0 的收入流通速度呈U 型变化，货币M0、M1、M2 的收入流通加速度(收入流通速度的变化率)都不为常数而是变化的。第二，货币M0、M1、M2 的收入流通加速度与货币的增长率之间具有负相关性，但与通货膨胀率之间具有正相关性，这种关系在一定程度上减弱了货币增长率对于通货膨胀的正向刺激作用。第三，货币M0、M1、M2 的收入流通加速度对于通货膨胀的正向影响程度高于货币增长率对于通货膨胀的正向影响程度，这种关系具有长期协整性。第四，从长期来说，货币M0、M1、M2 的增长率和收入流通加速度都是通货膨胀率的单向格兰杰原因。第五，脉冲响应分析表明通货膨胀率对于来自其自身的误差冲击的响应可以被看成是对来自于货币增长率的误差冲击所做出的响应与其对来自于货币的收入流通加速的误差冲击所做出的响应的叠加。

Abstract: Based on the Friedman quantity theory of money and the empirical analysis by using Chinese data sample during 1978~2009, this paper has found five results: Firstly, the curve of income velocity of M0 is U-shaped, and the income acceleration velocities of M0, M1, and M2 are changeable but not constant. Secondly, the relationships between income acceleration velocities and growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 are negative; however, the relationships between income acceleration velocities of M0, M1, and M2 and inflation rate are positive, these relationships may substantially reduce the impact on inflation from growth rates of M0, M1,and M2. Thirdly, there are co-integrations in the long run among growth rates and income acceleration velocities of M0, M1, and M2 and inflation, whereas that the positive impacts on inflation from income acceleration velocities are stronger than from growth rates of M0, M1, and M2. Fourthly, the growth rates and the acceleration velocities of M0, M1, and M2 in the long run are Granger reasons of inflation. Fifthly, the impulse response analysis has shown that the impulse response of inflation to inflation is the overlap between the impulse response of growth rate of money and the impulse response of acceleration velocity of money.