都匀市初终霜日变化特征分析及霜冻有效预防措施

Analysis on Change Characteristics of First Frost Day in Dujun City and Effective Preventive Measures of Frost

摘要: 本文利用都匀国家基本气象站1971~2018年的初、终霜日的观测资料及无霜期统计资料，采用线性回归法、M-K突变检验方法、滑动T检验法，分析都匀市近48年来初、终霜日与无霜冻期的变化特征，并提出预防霜冻的几点措施。结果表明：近48a来，都匀市初霜日日序以6.67 d/10a的变化速率呈明显推迟，终霜日日序以0.50/10a的速率呈一定的推迟趋势，无霜期以7.52 d/10a的速率呈明显的延长变化趋势；突变分析表明，都匀市初霜日、终霜日、无霜期均出现了突变；霜冻灾害发生时往往会对农作物及人体健康产生严重危害，因此应当及时采取覆盖、熏烟或喷洒适量的化学试剂等多种方法，以达到有效预防霜冻的目的。同时霜冻灾害发生时民众一定要注意防风保暖，并及时添加衣物，以确保自身的身体健康安全。

Abstract: Based on the observation data of the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free days at Duyun National meteorological stations from 1971 to 2018, linear regression method, Mann-Kendall mutation test method, and moving T test method are used to analyze the change characteristics of the first and last frost date and frost-free days in Duyun, and some measures to prevent frost are proposed. The results show that in the past 48 years, the first frost date sequence in Duyun has been significantly delayed at a rate of 6.67 d/10a, the final frost day sequence has been delayed at a rate of 0.50 d/10a, and the frost-free days have been delayed by 7.52 d/10a, which shows a significant prolonged trend. The mutation analysis indicates that there were mutations in the first frost date, last frost date and frost-free days in Duyun; Frost disasters often cause serious damages to crops and human health. Therefore, methods such as covering, smoking, or spraying appropriate amounts of chemical reagents should be adopted timely to effectively prevent frost. At the same time, public must pay attention to the wind to keep warm, and add clothing in time to ensure their own health and safety when a frost disaster occurs.