煤制气工程项目的风险和对策

Risks in the Coal to Synthesized Natural Gas and the Counterpart Measures Thereof

摘要: 为了满足国内清洁能源的需求，我国在“十二五”规划里，计划了4000多亿人民币的煤制气项目，分布在煤炭储量高而人烟较少的地区。同时作为新兴能源，继美国页岩气开发成功，并满足美国国内天然气需求后，我国页岩气的勘探和开发也在加快步伐。美国页岩气的开发使天然气的价格持续走低，油气价格比不断上升，使得美国国内的煤制气项目的经济可行性越来越小。而且煤制气项目的投资强度大，规模要求高。虽然我国页岩气的开发还处于早期阶段，但是在可以预期的时间段内，煤制气项目的必要性和经济可行性是存在的。但是从中长期的角度看，煤制气项目的经济风险还是比较高的。但是鉴于煤制气和煤制油项目有很相似的工艺和设备，因此为了防范煤制气项目的风险，建议在煤制气项目的设计和建设阶段，就应该考虑工程改造，一旦煤制气项目的经济性不可行，可以把煤制气改造为煤制油项目。

Abstract:  To meet the increasing demand of clean energy in China, more than RMB Yuan 400 billion investment has been planned to contract several coal to synthesized natural gas (Coal to SNG) project in the regions ofChinawhere there are abundant coal reserve with fewer people. Meanwhile, it has been demonstrated that the successful development of shale gas inUSAleads to the excessive supply of natural gas inUSAand causes the ratio of oil to gas price continuously increasing. In the 12th “5 year plan”, shale gas development has been one of the main focuses, which is expected to supply more and more natural gas from shale gas reserves. This in return would give rise to the economical risks to the coal to synthetic natural gas projects, which requires intensive invest and long payback period. To mitigate the long term economic risks of coal to SNG project, it is recommended to consider the conversion of coal to SNG project into coal to oil project in the future when the gas demand is less than requirements. Because from the technology view, coal to SNG and coal to oil processes have the similar steps and common features.