冰川变化研究近况

Study on Recent Change of Glacier

摘要: 全球冰川面积1600万km2，中国冰川面积约6万km2。冰川中储存了古代气候与环境变化的大量的精度高的信息，它可通过冰芯研究取得。中国在高山冰川的冰芯研究已处于世界前列。冰川对气候变化的反应敏锐，主要反映在物质平衡的波动上，全球现已有226条冰川进行了冰川物质平衡的监测。近数十年来表现为不断增大的负平衡。应用卫星遥感资料与冰川编目数据对比可以获得广大地区冰川近数十年的变化资料，初步结果表明，中国西北冰川面积在近30年中约退缩4.5%，其中边缘山脉退缩较快，青藏高原西北部退缩最慢。应用冰川系统模型可以预测冰川未来变化趋势，与冰川近期变化的实况对比，差别不大。

Abstract: The global glacier area is 16 million km2 and there is 60 thousand km2 in China. The steady and high accuracy information about the old climate and environmental change that stored in glaciers can be got by ice core studies. Chinese studies in ice core of alpine glacier has been equivalent to the world advanced level. The glacier responses to climate change sensitively, which mainly reflected in the fluctuation of mass balance, and there have 226 glaciers been monitored about glacier mass balance in the world. In recent decades it shows the increasing negative mass balance. The change information about the glaciers in vast area in recent decades can be got by comparing the satellite remote sensing data with the glacier inventory data. Preliminary results suggest that the glacier area in the northwestern China has retreated about 4.5% in recent thirty years, among which the edge of mountains retreats faster and the northwestern Tibet Plateau retreats the slowest. The tendency of glacier change can be forecasted by the application of the model of glacier system. That has no evident difference compared with that of the recent change of glacier.