超额货币、货币自膨胀与通货膨胀—基于中国数据的实证分析

Excess Money, Self-Expansion of Money and Inflation—Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Data

摘要: 本文的目的是解释中国的超额货币问题，重点是研究超额货币增量。从中国中央银行基础货币的形成机制出发，通过讨论超额货币的形成过程和产生原因，本文将对于超额货币问题的讨论转化成了对于超额货币增量问题的讨论。为了分析和研究超额货币问题，本文定义了七种变量，来表现超额货币的特征，如货币自膨胀率、货币全膨胀率、货币超名义经济增长率、超额货币增长率、以增量货币数量方程式为基础的货币自膨胀率、存量货币化比率、增量货币化比率等。本文以中国1993~2010年的数据为样本进行实证分析表明，这些变量不仅比传统货币数量论能够更好地解释中国的超额货币现象，而且能够以不同的方式揭示出货币的超额增长率与经济增长率和通货膨胀率之间的关系。

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to explain the issues of excess money in China. The important point on this paper is to study the issues of excess quantity of money changes. Beginning from the creating mechanism of the basic money issued by the Chinese central bank, by discussing the issuing procedures and producing reasons of excess money, this paper has focused on the discussion of the issues of excess money from the discussion of the issues of excess quantity of money changes. For analyzing and studying the issues of excess money, the paper defines seven variables to show the characteristics of excess money, such as self-expansion rate of money, total expansion rate of money, excess economic growth rate of money, excess growth rate of money, self-expansion rate of money defined in quantity equation of money changes, monetized ratio of money, monetized ratio of money changes. Based on the Chinese data from the period of 1993~2010, the empirical analysis has shown that not only the issues of excess money in China can be explained better than the traditional theory by using these seven variables, but also the correlations between excess growth rate of money and real economic growth rate and inflation rate can be revealed on different ways.