货币供应量对股市平均股价的影响*

The Influence of Monetary Aggregates on the Average Stock Price in the Stock Market*

摘要: 文章研究货币供应量对证券市场的影响，选择中国股市平均股价为被解释变量，货币供应量为解释变量，根据计量经济学相关理论及处理方法，引入虚拟变量，运用Eviews软件建立计量经济学模型，分别从定性分析和定量分析上来研究货币供应量对股市平均股价的影响。研究结果表明，股市平均股价与货币供应量存在长期均衡关系，货币供应量是影响股价走势的重要因素，但不是唯一的决定因素，货币供应量对股市平均股价的影响受到投资者对宏观经济预期的制约。当投资者对国家的宏观经济预期不同时，货币供应量对股市平均股价的影响相应地显现出正相关或不显著。

Abstract: The paper researches the influence of Monetary Aggregates to the securities market. We choose the average stock price in China stock markets for the explained variable and Monetary Aggregates for the explanatory variable. According to the correlation theories and processing methods of econometrics, we introduce dummy variables and establish the econometrics model by using Eviews. We research the influence of Monetary Aggregates on the average stock price by using ways of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Our research results show that there exists long-term balance relationship between the average stock price and Monetary Aggregates. Monetary Aggregates is one of the key factors affecting the trend of the stock price, but not the only crucial factor. The influence of Monetary Aggregates on the average stock price in the stock market depends on the Macro-Economy expectation of the investors. When the investors have different ex-pectations of Macro-Economy, the influence of Monetary Aggregates on the average stock price may show positively correlated or indistinctive.