基于贝叶斯网络的钱塘江河口地区咸潮入侵研究
Analysis on Saline Water Intrusion in Qiantang River Based on Bayesian Network
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2012.16076, PDF, HTML, 下载: 2,772  浏览: 7,999  国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 高希超, 马 冲, 张徐杰, 许月萍, 张永强：浙江大学建筑工程学院水利工程学系
关键词: 贝叶斯网络；咸潮入侵；钱塘江河口；联合风险；Bayesian Network; Saline Water Intrusion; Estuary of Qiantang River; Joint Risk
摘要: 本文建立了钱塘江下游桐庐、闸口及瞰浦三站水(潮)位之间的贝叶斯网络模型，并对网络模型的参数进行了估计和分析。通过三站高、低水位的不同遭遇情况来确定是否有咸潮入侵的情况发生，给出了桐庐、闸口两站咸潮入侵的概率，且通过贝叶斯网络的推理功能对所研究地区的咸潮入侵情况进行仿真分析，给出在某些特定情况下各站发生咸潮入侵的概率。
Abstract: Saline water intrusion in QiantangRiverexerts a severe impact on residential life, environment and economic development. In this article, a simple Bayesian Network model based on water levels of Tong- lu, Zhakou and Kanpu stations is established and the parameters are analyzed through the observation data. Whether the saline water intrusion will occur or not is determined by the relative water level of Tonglu, Zha- kou and Kanpu stations. Based on the model, the probability of saline water intrusion at Tonglu and Zhakou stations is determined. The reasoning ability of Bayesian Network is utilized to simulate the potential saline water intrusion in some certain situations.
文章引用：高希超, 马冲, 张徐杰, 许月萍, 张永强. 基于贝叶斯网络的钱塘江河口地区咸潮入侵研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2012, 1(6): 475-479. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2012.16076

参考文献

[1] 徐小燕. 新安江水库的压咸作用初探[J]. 浙江水利水电专 科学校学报, 2001, 13(1): 42-43. XU Xiaoyan. Discussion on desalinity function in Xi’anjiang reservoir. Journal of Zhejiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower College, 2001, 13(1): 42-43. (in Chinese)
[2] 裘江南, 王延章, 董磊磊, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件预测模型[J]. 系统管理学报, 2011, 20(1): 98-102. QIU Jiangnan, WANG Yanzhang, DONG Leilei, et al. A model for predicting emergency event based on Bayesian Networks. Journal of Systems & Management, 2011, 20(1): 98-102. (in Chinese)
[3] SHE Dunxian, YANG Xiaohua and XIA Jun. The evaluation of the integrated risk for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project using the Bayesian Network theory. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2010, 1(3): 259-267.
[4] 罗建男, 卢文喜, 陈社明, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的水环境管理研究[J]. 节水灌溉, 2011, 3: 68-72. LUO Jiannan, LU Wenxi, CHEN Sheming, et al. Study on water environment management based on Bayesian Networks. Water Saving Irrigation, 2011, 3: 68-72. (in Chinese)
[5] 卢文喜, 罗建南, 鲍新华. 贝叶斯网络在水资源管理中的应用[J]. 吉林大学学报, 2011, 41(1): 153-158. LU Wenxi, LUO Jiannan and BAO Xinhua. Application of Bayesian Networks in water resource management. Journal of Jilin University, 2011, 41(1): 153-158. (in Chinese)
[6] 张连文, 郭海鹏. 贝叶斯网引论[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2006: 33-34. ZHAN Lianwen, GUO Haipeng. Introduction of Bayesian Net-works. Beijing: Science Press, 2006: 33-34. (in Chinese)
[7] 张连文, 郭海鹏. 贝叶斯网引论[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2006: 143-171. ZHAN Lianwen, GUO Haipeng. Introduction of Bayesian Net- works. Beijing: Science Press, 2006: 143-171. (in Chinese)
[8] 戴昌军. 沿海地区年最高潮位频率分析研究[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2005, 11: 37-39. DAI Changjun. Analysis of annual design highest tide level fre-quency in littoral area. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2005, 11: 37-39. (in Chinese)
[9] 许月萍, 童杨斌, 楼章华. 无资料小流域设计洪水不确定性研究[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 47(6): 61-69. XU Yueping, TONG Yangbin and LOU Zhanghua. Estimating uncertainty in design flood for ungauged catchments. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2008, 47(6): 61-69. (in Chinese)
[10] 康玲, 何小聪, 熊其玲. 基于贝叶斯网络理论的南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区降雨丰枯遭遇风险分析[J]. 水力学报, 2010, 41(8): 908-913. KANG Lin, HE Xiaocong and XIONG Qilin. Risk analysis for precipitation rich-poor encounter between source area and re-ceiving area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on Bayesian theory. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2010, 41(8): 908-913. (in Chinese)