基于遥感与Dinamica模型的中国LUCC模拟与预测

The Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change in China with Remote Sensing and Dinamica Model

摘要: Dinamica EGO是一个基于马尔科夫过程和元胞自动机原理，模拟未来土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)的时空模型。Dinamica EGO模型在国际上已经有广泛的应用，然而国内还没有Dinamica EGO模型研究的案例。本文利用基于遥感时序数据提取的2000年和2005年中国土地利用图，以Dinamica EGO为平台模拟2005年中国土地利用情况并加以验证。结果表明，Dinamica EGO模型能够准确的模拟2000~2005年中国土地利用变化，并可以根据基于贝叶斯估计的证据权重法，对中国2000~2005年土地利用变化的主要驱动力及空间特点进行分析。在此基础上，以2005年土地利用数据为基准模拟2015年中国土地利用状况，并对未来我国土地利用的空间格局做了分析，该研究可为我国国土资源规划和未来碳排放情景提供数据支持。

Abstract: Dinamica EGO which consists of Markova process and cell automata is a time-space model used for land use and land cover simulation. It has been universally used whereas there are little study cases in China. In this paper, Dinamica EGO was used as a platform to simulate the land use of China in 2005 and to evaluate its simulation map with land use map extracted from remote sensing series data. The results showed that Dinamica EGO model could precisely predict land use change of China from 2000 to 2005 and at the same time, evidence weight method based on Bayesian could be utilized to analyze the major driving factors and spatial characteristics of land use during that period. On the basis of previous work, land use map in 2005 was used as baseline to simulate land use conditions in 2015 and a further analysis of spatial patterns were conducted. This study could serve for land plan and carbon emission of China in the future.