摘要: 合理分析气候变化和人类活动对河川径流的影响，是环境变化影响研究领域中的科学问题，由于现阶段气候变化和剧烈的人类活动，致使径流形成机理和规律发生了变化。本文提出了在采用统计学方法分析径流和降水变异分析的基础上，将径流分成基准期和变化期，以基准期为基础建立降水径流双累积曲线模型，定量分析变化期气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。以汾河流域为例进行了实例研究，研究结果表明，汾河入黄河津站实测径流减少趋势明显，1981年为径流的突变年份。1981年后气候变化和人类活动的综合作用致使实测径流减少明显。其中，人类活动致使径流深减少了13.0 mm，贡献率为84.4%，降水减少致使径流深减少了2.4 mm，贡献率为15.6%。
Abstract:
Reasonable analysis on influences of climate change and human activities on runoff is a scientific question of environmental changes. Runoff generation mechanism and rules has changed due to the climate change and intense human activities. Double Mass Curve method was built based on the baseline period to quantify the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff according to the statistics results. The Fenhe river basin was chosen as case study. The results show that the runoff of the Fenhe river basin had a decreasing trend, and the mutation year is 1981. The reasons of observed runoff reducing caused by combined effect of climate change and human activities after 1981. The affect amounts of runoff are 15.4 mm, in which 13.0 mm is caused by the human activities and 2.4 mm is caused by climate change, the contribution rate are 84.4% and 15.6%, respectively.