东江流域气象要素季节性变化与径流响应关系分析

Analysis of Response Relation Between Seasonal Change in Meteorological Elements and Runoff in the Dongjiang River Basin

摘要: 基于东江流域1959~2009年逐月径流与气象资料，采用Mann-Kendall、相关分析及关联度分析等方法，计算并分析了东江流域气象要素季节性时空变化和径流量变化趋势及二者的相关性和关联度，以阐述气象要素季节性变化对径流的响应关系，为流域水资源规划与评价提供依据。结果表明：1) 流域降雨和气温夏季和秋季均呈减少趋势，而蒸发则各季节均呈现出显著减少趋势；2) 降雨和气温季节性空间分布差异较为明显，而蒸发分布规律则相对一致；3) 降雨和蒸发与径流季节性相关系数较气温大，蒸发于四个季节与径流的关联度均最小。

Abstract: Based on the monthly runoff and meteorological data during 1959-2009 of the Dongjiang River basin, the space-time change of meteorological elements and variation tendency of the runoff were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test, correlation analysis and relevancy analysis methods. The correlation and relevancy between them were also found out. The results showed that: 1) The precipitation and temperature decrease in summer and fall, while evaporation showed a significant reduction in each season; 2) The seasonal spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature is obvious, while that of evaporation distribution is relatively consistent; 3) The correlation coefficients of evaporation and precipitation between seasonal runoff are larger than that of temperature, and the relevance of evaporation with runoff in the four seasons are the smallest. The result can elaborate the response relationship between seasonal change of meteorological elements and runoff, which provides a basis for water resources planning and evaluation.