考虑系统元件故障不确定性的电压暂降盲数评估

Voltage Sag Evaluation Method Based on Blind Number Mod-el of Component Reliability Parameter

摘要: 系统元件可靠性参数和电压暂降评估结果的不确定性刻画方式对评估结果的可信性和工程应用价值有重要影响。本文基于盲数理论提出考虑复杂不确定性的元件可靠性参数盲数刻画模型和电压暂降评估方法。在研究元件可靠性参数盲数模型及算法的基础上，结合电压暂降解析式评估法，建立了电压暂降盲数评估模型，并研究具体算法。在得到评估结果的可能取值区间和可信度的基础上，通过求取盲数均值得暂降频次定量评估结果。对IEEE-30节点测试系统进行仿真并与现有方法比较证明，所得结果准确，同时具有点值法和区间法的优点，不仅能获得暂降频次的可能区间取值，而且还能获得取值可信度，更满足工程应用需要。

Abstract: The way to depict the uncertainty of components reliability parameters and voltage sag evaluation results has significant influence on the credibility of evaluation results and engineering application value. Based on the blind num-ber theory, this paper proposed a new method to depict components reliability parameters and voltage sag evaluation results. Introducing the blind number into depicting the multiple uncertainties of components reliability parameters, combining the advantage of the analytical method to assess voltage sag, this paper establish the model of evaluation voltage sag on the base of the blind number and research on the specific evaluation algorithm. Upon obtaining the possible interval of voltage sag frequency and the corresponding credible degree, this paper take the blind number ex-pectations of evaluation results as voltage sag frequency evaluation results. The proposed method had been applied to the IEEE-30 bus test system, the simulation results have shown that the evaluation results have high accuracy, including the advantage of deterministic method and interval number method, this method can not only give the possible interval results but also the corresponding credible degree, better satisfying the engineering applications.