流通股总量对股市平均股价的影响

The Influence of the Total Amount of Tradable Shares on the Average Price of Tradable Shares in the Stock Market

摘要: 本文研究中国股市中流通股总量对股市平均股价的影响。我们选择流通股总量为解释变量，股市平均股价为被解释变量，建立计量经济学回归模型，分别从长期和细节两方面来研究流通股总量与股市平均股价之间的关系。研究结果表明，长期来看，股市平均股价与流通股总量之间存在着长期的均衡关系。从短期和细节来看，流通股总量的增长对股市平均股价存在着抑制作用。流通股总量达到一定的规模后，随着流通股总量的加速增长，其抑制作用变得越来越显著。

Abstract: This paper researches the influence of the total amount of tradable shares on the average price of tradable shares in China’s securities market. We choose the total amount of tradable shares for the explana-tory variable and the average price of tradable shares for the explained variable. According to the relevant theories and methods of econometrics, in order to research the influence, we establish econometric models by using ways of long-term analysis and detail analysis. Our research shows that there is a long-term balance re-lationship between these two variables. In the short-run, the total amount of tradable shares depresses the av-erage price of tradable shares, and when the scale of the total amount of tradable shares becomes large, the depression becomes more and more significant as the total amount of tradable shares grows.