三峡水库提前蓄水方案的优化选择

Optimal Scheme of Early Refill Operation for the Three Gorges Reservoir

摘要: 应用Copula函数构建了联合分布及条件概率分布，通过随机抽样方法模拟得到三峡水库9月份随机入库流量序列。建立了提前蓄水方案优选模型，计算并分析了8月下旬不同来水情景下，三峡水库9月份提前蓄水方案的优化选择。研究结果表明：若8月下旬来水为丰水，则9月下旬起蓄，月底均匀蓄水至166 m，较原设计方案，在不增加防洪风险的前提下，多年平均发电量可增加1.57亿kW∙h (1.46%)，弃水量减小10.72亿m³ (12.89%)；若来水为平水，则9月中旬起蓄，月底均匀蓄水至166 m，较原设计方案，在不增加防洪风险的前提下，多年平均发电量可增加3.45亿kW∙h (3.40%)，弃水量减小22.59亿m³ (34.19%)；若来水为枯水，通过加强实时监测，则可进一步提前至9月上旬起蓄，月底均匀蓄水至166 m，较原设计方案，在基本不增加防洪风险的前提下，多年平均发电量可增加5.50亿kW∙h (6.12%)，弃水量减小19.18亿m³ (51.89%)。

Abstract: A joint distribution function and conditional probability distribution of this samples using copula was built and inflow series in September were obtained by stochastic simulation method. Furthermore, a refill operation optimization model of the Three Gorges Reservoir was established in this paper to derive the optimal refill scheme. The results show that the optimal refill scheme depends on the reservoir inflow in late August. In the wet year, refill begins in late September with storage level reaching 166 m on September 30 linearly. Comparing with designed scheme, the scheme can generate extra about 1.57 × 10⁸ kW·h electrical energy (by 1.46%) and save 10.72 × 10⁸ m³ water resources (by 12.89%) annually without increasing the flood control risk; In the normal year, refill begins in middle September with storage level reaching 166 m on September 30 linearly. Comparing with designed scheme, the scheme can generate extra about 3.45 × 10⁸ kW·h electrical energy (by 3.40%) and save 22.59 × 10⁸ m³ water resources (by 34.19%) annually without increasing the flood control risk; In the dry year, refill begins in early September with storage level reaching 166 m on September 30 linearly by strengthening real-time monitoring. Comparing with designed scheme, the scheme can generate extra about 5.50 × 10⁸ kW·h electrical energy (by 6.12%) and save 19.18 × 10⁸ m³ water resources (by 51.89%) annually without increasing the flood control risk.