我国产业间结构升级对碳排放强度影响的实证研究

The Empirical Study about the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrade on Carbon Emissions Intensity in China

摘要: 运用Moore模型测度了我国1979~2012年的产业间结构变动值，采用碳排放强度来表示碳排放的结构性变动，并通过相关性检验与Granger因果关系检验来研究产业间结构变动与碳排放强度变量之间的关系。结果表明：二者之间存在一定相关性，碳排放强度由于受实际GDP因素的影响会导致我国产业间结构变动，并且有较强的滞后效应；而我国产业间结构升级不是碳排放量结构性优化的Granger原因。产业升级包含产业间和产业内的，本文否定了产业间结构因素对碳排放强度的影响，故后续研究碳排放结构的优化应从产业内升级着手。

Abstract: This study measured the change in value of China’s inter-industry structure between1979-2012 byMooremodel and used carbon emission intensity to represent the structural change of carbon emission. In addition, this paper studied the relationship between the inter-industry structure change and carbon intensity variable through correlation test and Granger Causality Test. Research results show that there is correlation between the two variables, and carbon emission intensity leads to the change of inter-industry structure be- cause of real GDP factor and has a strong hysteresis effect. However, the upgrade of inter-industry structure is not the Granger reason of structural optimization of carbon emissions. Industrial upgrade includes inter- industry and intra-industry, and this paper excludes the factor of inter-industry structure, so the follow-up study of carbon structure optimization should start with the intra-industry upgrade.