热带气旋对上海益处之缓解盛夏酷暑

The Benefit of Tropical Cyclone on Cooling Effect in Shanghai

摘要: 长期以来，人们多关注热带气旋的灾害性，并开展了大量旨在提高预报精度和防台减灾效益的研究，而少有涉及热带气旋益处方面的分析。本文利用上海的百年器测气温等资料，对热带气旋在缓解盛夏高温方面的益处进行初步分析，结果表明：百年来上海地区约有69%的热浪中断时伴有西北太平洋热带气旋的活动；这类热浪中断的当天，日最高气温较前一天平均降低约1.78℃，该降温趋势有时可持续8天以上，累计降温平均可达11℃以上，可节约用于防暑的电量约5601.5万kwh，约合3428.118万元人民币(最高可达1.55亿元)。

Abstract: For a long time, people usually pay much attention to the catastrophe of tropical cyclone (TC). A large quantity of studies has been carried out to improve forecasting accuracy, protect against and diminish TC disasters. However, few studies on TC benefits have been involved. In this paper, the benefits of TC on mitigating the summer heat wave have been preliminarily studied by using the data of Shanghai’s temperature from 1873 to 2006. The result shows that in the last hundred years in Shanghai, about 69% heat waves breaking are associated with the activity of TC in northwest Pacific. During the day of heat wave breaking, daily maximum temperature is 1.78˚C lower than the day before on average. What’s more, this trend will sometimes last for 8 days or more, and temperature decrease adds up to 11˚C averagely, which can save about 56,015,000 kwh power being used for summer heat wave prevention, adding up to 34,281,180 Yuan RMB (the maximal as high as 155 million Yuan).