基于灰色关联分析的地质灾害综合评价

The Comprehensive Evaluation of Geological Disasters Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

摘要: 本文分别以2012年全国各省市地质灾害数据以及2000年~2012年全国地质灾害数据为基础，利用灰色关联分析法求取关联度，作为地质灾害综合评价中确定各项指标权重的依据，进而建立灰色关联灾情评估模型，对2012年中国各省市发生的地质灾害进行综合评价以及灾害等级划分，对2000~2012年地质灾害发生情况进行综合评价以及趋势分析。结果表明：2012年受地质灾害较严重的省份位居前三的依次是四川、辽宁、湖南，尤以四川省较为突出；地质灾害存在周期性年际变化规律，但是从2000~2012年的时间轴来看，地质灾害总体呈现平稳略微下降的趋势。

Abstract: The paper is based on the data of national geological disasters in 2012 and 2000-2012. It uses the grey correlation analysis method to calculate the weight of each index, and then establishes the assessment model of grey correlation to evaluate geological disasters in 2012 comprehensively and analyzes the trend of disasters according to the time sequence. Results show that: the top three provinces suffering geological disasters were Sichuan, Liaoning and Hunan in 2012, of which Sichuan province was the most serious. In macro level, the geological hazards present the rule of cyclical interannual variation law, but from 2000 to 2012, the geological disasters declined steadily and slightly.