景德镇市异常高温的分析与预报

Analysis and Forecast of Abnormal High Temperature in Jingdezhen City

摘要: 本文统计分析了景德镇市1953~2013年异常高温的气候特点及天气形势、本站要素等特点，提出了预报指标，归纳了天气学概念模型。主要结论如下：1) 38℃以上高温天气平均每年有3.3天，最多28天，有23年未出现38℃以上的高温天气，占总数的37.7%。大约9~10年内会有一个较为炎热的年份。异常高温绝大部分均出现在7~9月，40℃以上高温天气非常稀少，每8年才会出现1次。2) 异常高温常连续出现，连续2天出现的共有45个过程，年均0.74个；连续3天出现的共有26个过程，年均0.43个；大致每10年会有一次连续5天或以上持续38℃或以上的高温天气过程。3) 造成景德镇市异常高温的天气形势绝大部分是在强大的副热带高压控制下发生的，其余可分为台风西北侧型、台风西侧型、台风北侧型和西北气流型等4种形势。4) 建立的概念模型显示，河套以南的我国东部地区为强盛的副热带高压控制，850 hPa在长江下游至入海口和湖北北部地区有24℃或以上的暖中心，景德镇位于暖中心以南的22℃等温线附近。850 hPaTd > 16℃线位于江西东部与浙江、福建的交界处，在江西北部~浙江大部500 hPa有T-Td > 20℃的干舌，干舌位于低层暖中心东南部，景德镇位于高层干舌与低层露点高值区的交界处。

Abstract: In this article, climate characteristic and weather pattern have been analyzed, and synoptic model is also induced. Main conclusions are as following: 1) An average level of 38˚C or above is 3.3 days per year and tops at 28. Totally, there are 23 years that abnormal high temperature days have never shown up, making up 37.7% of all the 61 years. A hot year occurs almost once every 9 to 10 years and most high temperature appears between July and September. 40˚C-above days are very rare, which happens once every 8 years. 2) Abnormal high temperature days are always consecu-tive. There are totally 45 processes of 2 consecutive hot days and 26 processes of 3 consecutive hot days, making up average days of 0.74 and 0.43 per year. Once every 10 years, there would be a 38˚C-above process lasting 5 days or more. 3) The weather pattern that induces abnormal high temperature usually shows as under the control of a strong subtropical anticyclone, while the rest could be divided as the north-west typhoon pattern, west typhoon pattern, north typhoon pattern and north-west stream pattern. 4) The synoptic model shows the areas of east China at the south of Hetao are controlled by strong subtropical anticyclone and there exists a warm center of 24˚C or above at the lower Yangtze River and north Hubei province on 850 hPa while Jingdezhen locates at 22˚C isotherm in the south of the center. Td > 16˚C area locates at the east Jiangxi and the border of Zhejiang and Fujian on 850 hPa while on 500hPa exists a dry tongue of T-Td > 20˚C at the north of Jiangxi and Zhejiang. This dry tongue locates at the southeast part of the low level warm center and Jingdezhen is right on the border of the dry tongue in the high level and the high Td area in the low level.