农村规划中人口测算方法学研究

Population Estimates Methodology Research in Rural Planning

摘要: 近年来，我国对农村规划、建设日益重视，而农村规划中首要解决的核心问题便是人口测算。本文对住建部公布的首批28个全国村庄规划示范进行分析，发现农村规划中人口测算方法还有很大改进空间。我国农村人口有老龄化、低龄化、空心化、人口回流、吸引外来人口等五大特点，从而导致了人口规模的不确定性。因此在进行农村规划的人口测算时应做到：正确认识人口数据、严谨对待人口年龄结构、科学分析区域发展动向、合理评价村庄产业布局、综合运用多种测算方法。

Abstract: In recent years, our country is paying more and more attention to the rural areas’ planning and construction. The most important problem in rural planning is the population estimating. In this paper, we analyze the first batch of 28 national demonstration village planning announced by the Ministry of Housing, and find that the population calculation method of rural planning still has much room for improvement. The rural population in our country has five big characteristics which include aging, younger age, hollowing out, reflow and attracting foreign population, which leads to the uncertainty about the size of the population. So when we calculate the population of the rural planning, we should do something like correctly understanding the demographic data, rigorously treating the population age structure, scientifically analyzing regional developments, reasonably evaluating village industrial layout and comprehensively using various calculation methods.