青岛市旅游地域系统可持续发展动态仿真与评价

Dynamic Simulation and Analysis on Sustainable Development of Qingdao Regional Tourism System

摘要: 旅游经济与生态环境协调发展是旅游地域系统可持续发展的关键。本文以青岛市旅游地域系统为研究对象，运用系统动力学方法，仿真旅游地域系统动态变化趋势、调控系统发展，探索青岛市旅游地域系统可持续发展模式。主要结论：第一，青岛市旅游地域系统存在低效发展问题，具体表现为旅游产业粗放型经济增长和旅游地域空间低效率扩张；第二，以目前自然演变过程，青岛市旅游地域系统状态呈阶段性下降态势，须在2015年系统状态进入第二次下降趋势之前对其进行调控、优化；第三，仿真结果比较分析表明，适度加大旅游资源开发、旅游基础设施建设力度，增强政府对旅游业宏观调控作用，加大生态建设与环境保护力度，走集约型增长道路，是青岛市旅游地域系统可持续发展的选择。

Abstract: Coordinative development of tourism economy and ecological environment is the key point to sustainable development of regional tourism system. The paper takes the regional tourism system of Qingdao as the study area, simulates and regulates its development trend to explore the sus-tainable development pattern of the system, by the method of System Dynamics. The main conclu-sions are as follows: First, the regional tourism system of Qingdao is in somewhat inefficient de-velopment, specially the extensive growth of tourism economy and the inefficient expansion of tourism geographic space. Second, according to the natural evolution, the system will present a declining trend by phases, and regulations must be done before it enters into the second declining phase in 2015. Third, the comparative analysis on simulation results shows that a moderate in-crease of government’s macro-control on tourism, tourism resources development and tourism infrastructure construction, resulting in the intensive growth of tourism economy, is the way to realize the sustainable development of regional tourism system of Qingdao.