基于趋势外推模型的我国人口老龄化预测分析

Population Aging Prediction in China Based on Trend Extrapolation Model

摘要: 随着经济的发展，我国人口老龄化问题越来越严重。本文基于老年人人口数据，建立趋势外推模型对未来人口老龄化发展趋势进行预测。结果表明：我国2015~2024年的老龄化人口逐年递增，但相比以前，人口老龄化速度减缓。预测人口老龄化的未来发展趋势，具有一定的参考价值，为我国制定实施相关政策提供依据。

Abstract: With economic development, the problem of population aging is getting worse. This paper, based on the elderly population data, establishes trend extrapolation model for forecasting the future development trend of population aging. The results show that aging population from 2015 to 2024 increases year by year. But compared to the previous, population aging has slowed. The prediction of the future trends of population aging has a certain reference value and provides a basis for China to develop and implement related policies.