城市规模对居民出行距离的影响研究

Impact Analysis of City Scale on Trip Distance of Urban Residents

摘要: 在城市交通系统中，城市居民的出行分布研究很重要。本文在一定假设条件下, 运用概率统计理论推导居民出行距离的概率分布函数形式。在国内外相关研究的基础上，通过国内26个城市居民出行样本数据的计量分析，验证该假设条件的合理性，分析了函数参数的相关影响因素，如城市规模、城市人口和交通结构等，对其进行量化与非线性回归，得出居民出行距离的概率分布函数的一般形式，并最终推导出城市居民出行距离的一般公式。本文研究成果可以为城市发展和城市交通规划提供实用的参考借鉴价值。

Abstract: In the urban transport system, it’s important to study the urban trip distance distribution. In this paper, trip distance distribution function was analyzed by using probability theory under some hypothesis conditions, and was fitted by using resident trip data of 26 cities, the rationality of hy-pothesis conditions was tested, the effect factors of the function parameters were discussed, such as urban scale, urban population and traffic structure, a general function of trip distance distribution was established through quantitative analysis and nonlinear regression, and the general formula of the travel distance of the urban residents is finally derived. Hopefully, a few insightful results in this research could have important and practical value for urban development and urban transportation planning.