城镇化背景下山区人口结构与空间分布的演变

Demographic Change under the Evolving Urban Form in Mountain Region—Aspects of Structure and Spatial Distribution

摘要: 当前我国处在城市化的快速发展阶段，城市化的推进又会促进经济的进一步增长。山区的人口变化对这一过程有很大影响。本研究主要探讨如下四个问题：1) 山区的人口结构是否仍然年轻？2) 山区人口下降和快速老龄化的原因？3) 中长期的山区人口结构会是怎样的变化？4) 如何平衡城市化过程中的土地利用、产业转型，及农村人力资源与社会服务？本文意在分析人口数量和结构变化的原因和现状，预测可能的变化趋势，引起决策者对山区人口问题的重视，以实现平衡发展的目的。研究数据主要为人口普查数据和重庆市相关统计数据，以及土地利用数据和相关GIS数据。本研究综合使用了队列人口统计分析和地理信息系统(GIS)方法，以重庆市山区为例，对人口结构变化和人口空间分布进行分析与预测。

Abstract: China has been undergoing with rapid urbanization, which is a transformative process that could set off a new wave of economic growth. In this process, demographic change in mountain regions has much effect in line with constructing towns and cities. This paper investigates mainly four issues: 1) Is the mountain population structure still young? 2) What is the major reason for mountain population decline and rapid aging? 3) How does mountain people structure look like? And 4) What are the crucial points in making balanced development among land use, industrial transition and social services? We aim to explore the drivers of change, to project the possible trend, and to recall the policy makers to pay attention on mountain population issue, in order for a balanced development. Data base is from two sources: population census and statistics Chongqing, and GIS data and land maps of Chongqing. In the analysis we combine two methods that are based on cohort demography analysis, and spatial distribution via GIS model at village scale.