基于新安江模型的富水水库入库洪水预报方案研究

Study of Reservoir Inflow Forecast in Fushui Basin Using Xin’anjiang Model

摘要: 富水水库肩负着防洪、发电等综合利用任务，本文选用三水源新安江模型，用确定性系数作为参数率定的目标函数，对2000~2014年共计15年日资料和场次洪水资料进行入库洪水预报方案研究，其中2000~2009年为率定期，2010~2012年为检验期。日模拟中产流量相对误差均小于5%，确定性系数最小为0.72，最大为0.96，率定期均值为0.89，检验期均值为0.88；次洪模拟中产流量相对误差小于10%的有30次，占81%。确定性系数最小为0.81，最大为0.97，率定期和检验期的均值都为0.90。模拟效果较为理想，可有效指导生产实践。

Abstract: Fushui reservoir plays an important role in flood control and hydropower generation. In this paper, the Xin’anjiang model is applied for the reservoir inflow forecast based on the daily and hourly data from 2000 to 2014 in Fushui basin. The data sets from 2000 to 2009 are used for model calibration, and those from 2010 to 2014 are used for model validation. For the daily model, the Nash coefficient is 0.89 and 0.88 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively, while it is both of 0.9 for the flood events. The results show that the Xinanjiang model can simulate the reservoir inflow well and achieve a satisfactory forecast precision.