新疆哈密地区近54年极端气温变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Variation in Recent 54 Years in Hami Area of Xinjiang

摘要: 利用哈密地区3个代表性国家气象站1961~2014年的年平均气温、极端最高和极端最低气温资料，采用气候趋势系数、5a滑动平均和Mann­Kendall突变分析等气候统计分析方法，对哈密地区山南山北近54a年、季极端高温和极端低温特征进行分析研究。结果表明：哈密地区山南山北的年极端最高气温呈上升趋势，山北的上升幅度明显超过山南，是山南的3.3倍，山南的极高气温四季都呈波动性上升，山北在夏季、秋季明显上升，春季和冬季表现为微弱的下降趋势；山南的年极端最低气温呈微弱下降趋势，除冬季呈下降趋势外，春季、夏季、秋季呈上升趋势，山北的年极端最低气温呈明显的上升趋势，且变化趋势十分显著，即以20世纪80年代末为界，之前为较冷时期，之后为暖期，在春季升幅最大，冬季、秋季次之，夏季最慢。

Abstract: Based on the average temperature, extreme high and low temperatures data of three representative national meteorological stations in Hami from 1961 to 2014, the annual and seasonal characteristics of extreme high and low temperatures were analyzed by using the climate statistical analysis methods such as the Climate trend coefficient, 5 year sliding average, and Mann-Kendall test in recent 54 years. The results showed that: The annual extreme high temperature appeared to be going up in Hami area, and the increasing trend was obviously in the northern part, and was 3.3 times of the southern. The extreme high temperature appeared a fluctuating rise in the southern of Hami, in summer and autumn it increased significantly in northern, and showed slight downward trend in spring and winter; The annual extreme low temperature showed a weak downward trend in the southern of Hami, and except in winter, the trend increased in spring, summer and autumn; The annual extreme low showed a clear upward trend in the northern of Hami, and the trend was very significant especially at the end of 1980s, the weather was cold before the end of the 1980s, and after that, it was in the relatively warm period, the largest increase trend occurred in spring, and the summer was the slowest in trend of extreme low temperature.