基于产业结构变化的货运量预测方法研究

The Research of Freight Volume Forecasting Based on Industrial Structure Development

摘要: 货运量预测作为交通需求和经济发展关系研究中的一个重要问题，对交通规划和经济发展具有重要意义。社会经济的发展水平是产生货运需求的内在决定因素，本文试图从经济发展的角度寻求利用产业结构和经济发展指标来进行货运量预测，通过RBF神经网络来研究货运量预测的问题，建立了相应的预测模型并进行了实证研究，证明该模型具有较好的预测能力和一定的应用价值，为货运量预测工作提供了新的思路。

Abstract: As an important issue in the research of the relation between the transportation requirement and economy development, the freight volume forecasting is significant to the transportation planning and economy development. The social economy level was the internal determinant to the freight demand, so this paper tried to make freight volume forecasting from using industrial structure and economy development indicators, found forecasting model through RBF neural network and make positive analysis, then the model offered new method in freight volume forecasting work for its preferable forecasting ability and application value.