中国中部地区经济增长的收敛性研究

Research of the Economic Growth about the Convergence Problem in Central Regions of China

摘要: 本文考察了1979~2014年间我国中部地区经济增长的收敛性问题。通过计算每年各省经济增长的变异系数，发现变异系数在考察期内总体上存在降低的趋势，但是最近5年内变异系数出现了剧烈的波动。在Solow-Swan模型的基础上建立了检验绝对β收敛的回归方程，回归结果表明我国中部地区在考察期间内显著存在绝对β收敛，中部地区各省以年均2.5%的速度收敛。但如果把考察期变化成每8年一个周期，结论是中间存在某一段时间，各省之间的经济增长是发散的，这也表明中部地区虽然在经济条件和发展逻辑上有诸多相似点，但是经济发展方式和产业结构并不完全一致。

Abstract: This article is concentrated on the convergence of economic growth in central regions of China during 1979-2014. Calculating the annual variable coefficient of the economic growth in each province, the study finds out that there is a decreasing tendency about the variation coefficient during the investigation period. However, the variable coefficient has some drastic fluctuations in last 5 years. On the basis of the Solow-Swan model, regression equation to test the absolute β- convergence has been set up and the result shows that there is an absolute β-convergence in central regions of China during the investigation period and it converges at a rate of 2.5% a year. However, when the investigation cycle is turned into 8 years, the result shows that the economic growth of each province has a diverging tendency in a certain time. It also suggests that there are many similarities in the economic condition and development logic among these provinces in central regions of China, but the pattern of economic development and the industrial structure are inconsistent.