中国经济增长周期拐点及政策建议

The Turning Point of China’s Economic Growth Cycle and Policy Suggestions

摘要: 本文从经济周期规律、劳动力成本、投资回报率、利率及增速变化，分析中国经济特有现象及经济新周期的核心驱动因素变化。为了避免陷入其困境，本文提出四点建议：一是宏观上接受L型经济走势，以协同创新、跨界创新、融合创新，破解经济发展新周期的困境；二是协调推进制造业强国和金融强国建设；三是财政政策和货币政策要体现出更大的精准性和灵活性；四是提升改革效率，避免在中长期出现经济停滞风险。

Abstract: This paper analyzes the Chinese special economic phenomenon and a new cycle of economic change and its driving core factors from the economic cycle, labor cost, return on investment, interest rates and changes in the growth rate. In order to avoid getting into the dilemma, this paper puts forward four suggestions: the first is to accept L-shape economic development on the macro, in order to solve the trouble of the new cycle predicament of the economic development, adopting the policy of collaborative innovation, cross-border innovation, integration innovation; the second is to promote the coordination building of manufacturing power and financial power; the third is to reflect the greater accuracy and flexibility on fiscal policy and monetary policy; the fourth is to improve the reform efficiency, in order to avoid the risk of economic stagnation in the medium to long term.