信宜近60年气温降水变化的多尺度分析

Wavelet Analysis of the Temperature and Precipitation Time Series in Xinyi during the Last 60 Years

摘要: 统计信宜国家基本气象站近60年观测到的日降水和气温资料，通过小波分析年降水和气温变化特征。结果表明：信宜年降水量呈上升趋势，年降水变化震荡周期分别为5~6年，10年，22年和29年；气温呈上升趋势，气温变化周期分别为6年，14年和28年。根据震荡变化周期预测，信宜今后一段时间将处于降水偏多而气温偏低的时期。此统计分析对信宜气候变化预报预测分析提供一定的参考价值。

Abstract: Based on the data of daily precipitation and air temperature observed during the past 60 years in the national basic meteorological station of Xinyi, the characteristics of precipitation and temperature change are analyzed by wavelet analysis. Analysis results show that: the annual precipitation in Xinyi is on the upward trend; the annual precipitation change period is 5 - 6 years, 10 years, 22 and 29 years; the temperature is rising; the temperature change period is 6 years, 14 years and 28 years, respectively. According to the period of the shock change period, Xinyi will be in a period of more precipitation and lower temperature in the future. This analysis provides a certain reference value for the prediction of climate change in Xinyi.