黄土高原山洪泥石流气象预警区划方法初探

Study on Loess Plateau of Geo-Hazards in the Law and Meteorological Early Warning Method

摘要: 黄土高原地质灾害频发，山洪泥石流危害严重，已成为影响当地国计民生的很大障碍。通过详细的野外地质灾害调查，利用多年的地质灾害资料和气象资料，分析了研究区地质灾害的时空分布特点及其与降雨的关系，发现山洪泥石流灾害的发生特点与降雨量分布的关系非常密切。在对山洪泥石流发育机理和规律进行深入分析的基础上，结合山洪泥石流等地质灾害发生时的降雨资料，确定了地质灾害气象预警临界降雨量阈值，在此基础上进行地质灾害气象预警区划，分区建立了基于降雨量观测和预报的山洪泥石流气象预报模式。通过在黄土高原山洪泥石流区应用检验，效果良好。

Abstract: Increasingly serious geo-hazards in Loess Plateau have become a substantial obstacle affecting the local people’s livelihood. According to detailed field geo-hazard survey, on the use of years of geo-logical disasters and weather information, this paper analyzed the relationship between geo- haz-ards spatial and temporal distribution and rainfall in the study area, and pointed out a very close relationship between the occurrence characteristics of geo-hazards and rainfall distribution. It is shown that rainfall is the main excitation factor of landslides, avalanches, landslides and other geo-hazards. Based on the further analysis of development mechanism and law of geological dis-asters in the area, combined with the rainfall data, this paper determined the geological disaster weather warning rainfall threshold. According to the latest information on geological hazards on the basis of meteorological early warning zoning, zoning is established based on rainfall observations and forecasting of geo-hazards in weather forecasting model, and this mode is the main technical methods applied in the test showing that it has a relatively good results in Huangling County, Shaanxi Province, and it is beneficial to the local government departments to take appropriate preventive measures.