湖南省农村金融发展与农业全要素生产率的动态关系研究—基于DEA与VAR的实证分析

Research on the Interaction between Rural Financial Development and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity—Empirical Analysis Based on the Method of DEA and VAR Model

摘要: 本文利用1988~2012年湖南省14个市州的农业指标数据，运用DEA Malmquist指数方法测算了农业技术效率、农业技术进步以及农业全要素生产率，同时利用1988~2012年湖南省农村金融发展的数据测算了农村金融发展规模、农村金融发展效率及农村金融发展结构；然后利用协整检验和脉冲响应函数分析湖南省农村金融发展三个指标分别与湖南省农业技术效率、技术进步、农业全要素生产率的相互影响。结果表明：湖南省农村金融发展三个指标分别与其农业技术效率、技术进步和全要素生产率具有长期稳定均衡关系；金融发展规模对农业技术进步及农业全要素生产率影响具有中短期作用，金融发展效率对两者具有长期的影响作用，而金融发展结构对农业技术进步及农业全要素生产率影响为负，对农业技术效率影响为正；农业技术进步与农业全要素生产率对农村金融发展影响相似，前期具有正向影响，而后期具有负向影响；农业技术效率对农村金融发展前期具有正向影响，中期具有负向影响，而后期具有正向影响。

Abstract: Using DEA Malmquist index, this paper measures the agricultural total factor productivity levels, the efficiency of agricultural technology and the agricultural technological progress in 14 regions of Hunan province during 1988-2012. While using correlated data in Hunan rural finance devel-opment, it also estimates the development scale, development efficiency and development struc-ture of rural financial. Interaction impacts between three indicators of rural financial development and technological efficiency, technological advances and TFP will be analyzed respectively through cointegration test and impulse response function. The results show that: there’s a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the three indicators of the rural financial development and its agricultural technical efficiency, technological progress and TFP in Hunan province. Financial development scale has short-term and medium-term effects on technological progress; TFP and financial development efficiency have long-term impacts on them, while the financial development structure has negative impacts on agricultural technological progress and TFP, and positive impacts on the efficiency of agricultural technology. Agricultural technological progress and TFP have similar impacts on rural financial development: that is, positive impacts in the earlier stage, negative impacts in the later. Agricultural technical efficiency has positive impacts on rural finance in the earlier stage, negative impacts in the middle, and positive impacts in the later.